The legal dispute over whether President Trump exceeded his authority by invoking emergency powers to impose his so-called “Liberation Day” tariffs is nearing its conclusion, but a ruling may open the door to further litigation.

Most analysts anticipate a decision from the US Supreme Court very soon, possibly even within the next few days. In the meantime, legal challenges have already started to mount. Since Thanksgiving, more than 100 companies – including global retailer Costco – have filed lawsuits against the federal government seeking reimbursement of import duties should the tariffs ultimately be struck down.

Momentum appears to be shifting against the former president’s legal position. Betting markets now estimate a roughly 70% likelihood that the Supreme Court will uphold the decisions of two lower courts, both of which concluded that the administration exceeded its statutory authority in imposing the tariffs.

That shift has been reflected in government messaging. For weeks, Trump and senior officials warned that overturning the tariffs would have severe economic consequences and undermine national security. More recently, however, the rhetoric has softened and references to the administration exploring alternative mechanisms to advance its tariff policy suggest a growing acceptance that the ruling may not go to plan.

Several alternative legal routes have been suggested, but each appears constrained. Proposed options include lower tariff ceilings, tighter implementation timelines, or requirements for explicit congressional approval.

More than $100 billion in tariff revenue has already been collected, and the status of those funds remains uncertain. If the Supreme Court rules against Trump, determining whether and how those funds should be returned could trigger additional rounds of litigation.

Further complications arise from reports that tariff revenues are being rapidly transferred into the US Treasury, potentially making any refund process more complex.

Considering the unresolved questions around refunds, the impact on subsequent international trade agreements, and the likelihood of new tariff strategies, a Supreme Court ruling against Trump would leave behind one giant sized mess.

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