According to recent reports, global container volumes have been rising in recent months, although volumes on the Asia–Europe trade lane have begun to lose momentum.

Global container liftings increased by 2.8% month on month in October, reaching 16.3m teu. This represented a 2% year-on-year increase, pushing year-to-date growth to 4% compared with the same period in 2024.

This was the sixth time this year that monthly volumes exceeded 16m teu, in contrast to last year, when the industry reached that level just twice. However, after experiencing growth of around 10% each month earlier in the year, imports into Europe from Asia declined in October.

Despite overcapacity appearing likely to become a persistent challenge for carriers on the major trade lanes, new vessels continue to be ordered. A steady stream of new ships is expected to enter the market between now and 2030.

The containership order book has reached a new record of 11.25m teu, following a surge in new vessel orders placed in recent weeks. Outstanding orders now account for approximately 30% of the current global fleet.

As a result, capacity growth next year is expected to be around 5%. However, if carriers return to the Red Sea route in significant numbers, industry experts believe that growth could rise to as much as 12%.

This suggests that supply may increasingly diverge from current demand projections. The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) forecasts cumulative global trade growth of 12% through to 2030, which implies annual growth of around 2% to 3% in 2026.

That said, forecasting global trade and predicting the ocean freight market is rarely a straightforward task.

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