Asia-Europe Peak Season: Strong Comeback Or Another False Start?

Last year’s Asia-Europe ocean freight peak season barely got going, which raises the question of what we should expect this year.

Traditionally, Asia-Europe peak season activity begins in late June, continues through September, and ends around China’s Golden Week in early October. However, since the pandemic, traditional seasonal patterns have, to some extent, gone out of the window.

During Covid, it felt as though the industry was in a permanent peak season, while a series of geopolitical and other extraordinary events have made seasonal trends increasingly unpredictable.

These events include the pandemic itself, the blockage of the Suez Canal, the war in Ukraine, and Houthi attacks that led to vessels being rerouted around Africa, to name just a few.

This year, the Strait of Hormuz could also have an impact. Fuel supply risks may significantly affect costs during peak season if disruption continues, and there is still carrier capacity tied up in the Gulf.

Ocean freight carriers are already taking a fairly aggressive approach to blank sailings ahead of peak season, with figures in April almost 40% higher than in the same month last year. Reducing capacity has become a familiar tactic used by carriers to limit supply and create artificial demand.

With some carriers recently reporting losses, it is perhaps no surprise that we have seen a number of public statements ahead of peak season. One carrier recently predicted an early peak season, another suggested fuel shortages would have an impact, while a separate report indicated there has already been some container rolling at Asian export hubs.

There must be concern among global carriers that 2026 could repeat last year’s flat peak season, and it appears they are managing capacity accordingly.

So, will this year’s peak season be a strong comeback or another false start? In truth, we do not know for sure — but we should learn more over the next few weeks.