Suez Recovery Progresses Despite Red Sea Attacks Continuing

Signs of a recovery in Suez Canal traffic are growing, but recent events are demonstrating just how fragile that recovery remains.

MSC is the latest major container carrier to test increased Red Sea transits, sending seven vessels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait over a two-week period. Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM have also been progressively increasing their use of the Suez-Red Sea corridor.

For the Suez Canal, this represents an important development after several years in which many vessels were diverted around southern Africa because of Houthi attacks.

But the security situation around the southern Red Sea has deteriorated again.

The Houthis announced a blockade targeting Saudi-linked shipping in July, followed by attacks on vessels and infrastructure. On 11 August, an attack on the Tihamah in Bab el-Mandeb killed four crew members and two rescuers. A further vessel was struck by multiple projectiles off Al Mokha several days later and was subsequently declared a constructive total loss.

There are also signs of operators adapting their behaviour rather than assuming the route is safe. Some Saudi oil cargoes are reportedly transiting the region with AIS tracking switched off, making their movements more difficult to follow publicly.

All of this highlights the contradiction at the heart of the current Suez recovery.

Commercial pressure is encouraging some carriers back towards the shorter route, but the underlying security threat remains substantial. A major incident involving a container vessel could quickly reverse the current trend.

The Suez recovery is therefore progressing, but on unstable foundations. A sustained return will depend not simply on carrier confidence, but on whether the latest escalation in regional attacks can be contained.

As ever, the Westbound team will be monitoring the situation closely.