Uncertainty continues to hang over President Donald Trump’s trade agenda, including a brief and confusing episode in which a proposed 10% tariff on British exports to the United States was announced and then abruptly withdrawn amid the Greenland dispute.

At the centre of the uncertainty is a long-awaited decision from the US Supreme Court on whether the president’s expansive use of tariffs is lawful. Markets and businesses had been anticipating a ruling in the past fortnight, but with the court now entering a four-week recess, a judgment is unlikely before February 20th at the earliest.

In the absence of legal clarity, tensions have escalated in Washington. Senior administration figures have signalled that tariffs will remain a cornerstone of trade policy regardless of the court’s eventual verdict. Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, said the administration was already preparing contingency plans, stressing that an unfavourable ruling would not spell the end of import levies. Any measures struck down, he said, would be swiftly replaced with alternative duties.

President Trump has adopted an even sharper tone. He has warned that overturning the tariffs would trigger widespread disruption, arguing that unwinding them would be administratively chaotic and could take years to resolve. In a recent Truth Social post, the president claimed that a ruling against his administration would leave the country “screwed”.

The legal challenge targets a series of broad tariffs introduced last April and is being brought by small businesses alongside a group of US states. The plaintiffs argue that the president overstepped his constitutional authority by imposing the measures without congressional approval.

Trade lawyers caution that, should the tariffs be deemed unlawful, refunds could become caught up in lengthy administrative processes. Importers, however, contend that because the duties are clearly itemised, repayments should be straightforward.

If prediction platforms are anything to go by, then Trump’s chances of prevailing are currently around one in three. Meanwhile, more than a thousand companies are preparing legal claims against the federal government, seeking to recover an estimated $130 billion in duties already paid. For now, it appears that businesses face at least another month of uncertainty as they wait for the Supreme Court to decide.

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