As the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East continues to hold, the likelihood of Asia–European ocean freight services returning to the Red Sea remains slim for the foreseeable future.

Since Houthi rebels began targeting commercial shipping in January 2024, ocean carriers have been forced to reroute their vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. While this diversion adds between seven and ten days to transit times, it remains the safest and most predictable option for global carriers – and one that appears unlikely to change soon.

Carriers will be reluctant to expose multi-billion-dollar assets or crew members to renewed risk, especially when the long-term stability of the region is still uncertain.

Even if peace talks continue positively, a return to the Red Sea would probably not be immediate. The shift would require complex and time-consuming network realignments, and with current market conditions, the incentive to rush such changes isn’t currently there.

A return to the shorter route could leave 20–30% of the tonnage currently in use surplus to requirements – potentially triggering severe overcapacity across global trade lanes.

Meanwhile, carriers continue to battle weak demand and low freight rates on Asian trades. Many are reportedly operating at or below cost, leaving little margin for further rate declines. Any return to normal routing and further depression of rates could put financial pressure on supply lines.

For now, the longer route around Africa looks set to remain in place, although nobody knows for certain what the future will hold. Your Westbound team will continue to monitor developments closely over the coming months – but we are not holding our breath for a swift return to the Red Sea.

If you have any questions regarding the above, then Westbound are here to help. So, please do not hesitate to contact us.