It may seem a little early to start talking about Christmas, but with ongoing challenges in global supply chains, the idiom “a slow boat from China” has never been more relevant.

The current situation, particularly the ongoing Red Sea crisis, has prompted many Asia-Europe vessels to divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This detour introduces a critical question for European importers and logistics providers: when is the final cut-off date for shipping Christmas goods from Asia?

In the past few months, industry discussions have focused on the causes of surging spot rate levels. One central question is whether we are witnessing an early peak season this year. If this is the case, when will it conclude?

The key takeaway is that the Asia-Europe peak season will likely end two weeks earlier than usual, making the timing of China’s Golden Week holiday, which begins on October 1st, particularly challenging. During this holiday, China shuts down for a week, leading to a rush at its ports to maximize cargo shipments before the break, followed by a potential surge in activity once the country resumes work.

For importers of both FCL and LCL cargo, the implications are significant. Missing the last vessel out of Asia by the end of September could mean facing a challenging peak season and potentially higher air freight costs as retailers scramble to meet demand. Most retailers aim to have all goods in their systems two weeks before Christmas, with all shipping and transport completed by December 10th at the latest.

Given the current haulage booking delays in the UK of approximately seven days, importers will want their vessels arriving around November 23-24.

According to the schedules of several carriers, the current transit time from Shanghai to Felixstowe is between six and seven weeks, assuming no delays. For instance, the 2M alliance’s AE55/Griffin Sweeper service, departing Shanghai on October 5th, is scheduled to arrive at Felixstowe on November 16th. Another departure on November 12th has an expected arrival date of November 23rd, both with a sailing time of 47 days. Similarly, the Ocean Alliance’s NEU1 and NEU6 services advertise transit times of 42-44 days between the same ports.

However, with global schedule reliability currently at around 50% and vessel arrivals averaging five days late, it remains uncertain whether cargo loaded on these vessels, which would have to take place in Shanghai during Golden Week will reach the UK in time for onward distribution and to stock retail shelves for the Christmas shopping season. Its therefore looking like the sweet spot for shipping is going to be between the middle and end of September.

In summary, we understand that it might seem a little early to discuss Christmas logistics, but we are mindful of the current challenges and want to take proactive measures to ensure our customers are informed and can prepare effectively in advance to avoid stock shortages during the holiday season. The complexities of global shipping this year demand early attention, Westbound aim to help you navigate the peak season successfully and ensure your products reach customers in time for the holidays. Our goal is to support you in making informed decisions, allowing you to manage your supply chain efficiently and avoid any last-minute disruptions during this critical period.

If you have any questions regarding the above, then Westbound are here to help. So, please do not hesitate to contact us.